In enrollment management, we often talk about “access.” But true access is a hollow promise without affordability.

I’ve spent my career in Enrollment Management looking at the numbers, and the reality is stark: while our lowest-income students are finally seeing a clear path to the table, our middle- and upper-middle-class families are being left with the bill. If we want institutional resilience, we must ensure that the “Strategic Campus” serves everyone—not just those at the extremes.

The California Spread: A Top-Heavy Reality

California’s income distribution is unique. We are a wealthy state with a high cost of living, which creates a massive “affordability gap.” Looking at the household distribution:

Income Bracket	% of CA Households	Financial Aid Context
$0 – $30,000	15%	High eligibility for max Pell and Cal Grant B.
$30,001 – $48,000	9%	Typically covered by max state and federal grants.
$48,001 – $75,000	13%	The “taper” zone where Pell Grant amounts begin to decrease.
$75,001 – $110,000	15%	Families often lose Pell eligibility; reliance on Cal Grant A begins.
Above $110,000	48%	Nearly half of CA; families hit the “cliff” for most grant aid.

Nearly half of our families earn over $110,000. While that sounds like a lot in other states, in California, this group is squeezed. Low-income families often have their full tuition covered, but once a family crosses the $110k threshold, federal aid vanishes, leaving them to cover a “Net Price” that is often higher than their liquid savings can handle.

A Tale of Five Families: The Reality of the “Check”

The following table illustrates the estimated out-of-pocket reality for five different families of four:

Family Income	Federal Pell Grant	State Cal Grant	Middle Class Scholarship	Out-of-Pocket Status
$25,000	$7,395 (Max)	Full Coverage + Access	~$1,400	Tuition essentially $0; aid helps with living costs.
$45,000	$7,395 (Max)	Full Coverage + Access	~$1,400	Most supported group; direct costs generally covered.
$65,000	~$4,600 (Partial)	Full Coverage + Access	~$2,000	The “taper” starts; families begin to feel the sting.
$95,000	$0	Full Tuition (Cal A)	~$2,500	Net Price at a CSU can jump to over $15,000.
$130,000	$0	Near $0 (Cliff)	~$3,000	The “Squeezed Middle”; expected to cover full costs.

The Most Affordable Seats at the Table

Based on the data, these institutions are leading the way in keeping the “Net Price” manageable for different income tiers:

Target Bracket	Top Affordable Option 1	Top Affordable Option 2
$0 – $48,000	CSU San Bernardino	CSU Los Angeles
$48,001 – $110,000	CSU Fullerton	CSU Fresno
Above $110,000	CSU Dominguez Hills	CSU Los Angeles

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The Recipe for the Ideal “Universal Access” Scholarship

To achieve true equity, we need to go beyond the baseline promises. While the current Middle Class Scholarship (MCS) is a good start, it often acts as “last-dollar” aid—calculated only after every other resource is exhausted, which leaves middle-income families in a state of financial anxiety.

My refined California Equity Scholarship would move away from the current “wait-and-see” model. Instead of a floating percentage based on remaining need, it would offer a guaranteed, tiered grant structure.

The first step is a Tuition Guarantee: for any family earning up to $150,000, 100% of systemwide tuition and fees would be covered as “first-dollar” aid. This removes the “cliff” where families earning $145,000 suddenly find themselves paying thousands more than those earning $144,000.

For the families in the $150,000 to $250,000 range, we would implement a Fixed-Grant Credit of $5,000. This is more refined than the current MCS because it is predictable; families can plan their finances years in advance knowing exactly what they will receive, rather than waiting for a calculation that changes every semester. Additionally, we would eliminate the “Asset Test” for households under $150,000—recognizing that in California, having a modest retirement fund or a small family business shouldn’t disqualify you from educational equity.

Funding the Future: The Budget Estimate

To make this vision a reality, the State of California would need to commit to a structured annual budget. This investment ensures that no student is priced out of their potential.

Scholarship Component	Target Income Bracket	Estimated Annual Cost
Guaranteed Tuition	up to $ 150,000	$3.42 Billion
Cost of Living Stipends	Under $ 60,000	$818 Million
Middle Class Credits	$ 150,000 –$ 250,000	$594 Million
TOTAL EST. ANNUAL BUDGET		$4.83 Billion

While a $4.83 billion annual investment may sound like a steep order, we have to look at what we are already putting on the table.

California is already a leader, investing roughly $3 billion into Cal Grants and the current Middle Class Scholarship. By finding the additional $1.8 billion needed to fully fund this Equity Recipe, we aren’t just spending money—we are securing the future of the nearly 50% of California families who currently fall through the cracks of our financial aid system. Moving toward this refined, predictable model is exactly what a “Strategic Campus” needs to build true institutional resilience. When we ensure that every guest in our “Equity Kitchen” knows exactly what their meal will cost before they ever sit down, we create a stronger, more accessible, and more vibrant California for everyone.

By flipping the script and applying this aid before loans, we treat middle-class families as vital participants in our academic community, not just a source of revenue. In my kitchen, no one leaves hungry. In our universities, no one should be turned away.

My advice to California Universities

To increase enrollment and bolster institutional resilience, universities must move toward a more predictable and equitable strategy.

The most significant barrier is the “affordability cliff” where families earning above $110,000—nearly half of the state—face a net price they cannot absorb. My primary advice is to replace “last-dollar” calculations with a First-Dollar Tuition Guarantee for households up to $150,000, removing the sudden loss of aid that creates so much financial anxiety.

Furthermore, universities should standardize a Fixed-Grant Credit for those in the $150,000 to $250,000 bracket to ensure predictability in long-term planning.

Marketing must also shift away from “Sticker Price” to a persona-driven focus on Net Price ROI, connecting financial aid tiers to career outcomes. Finally, we must address hidden costs by allocating stipends for living expenses for our lowest-income students. By ensuring the “meal” is complete—covering both the plate and the food—you can stop “emergency” recruitment and build a truly student-ready, resilient campus.